JimmyCsays: At the juncture of journalism and daily life in KC

There’s a term in horse racing called dropping in class. It’s when a horse that’s been running (but usually not winning) at a high level drops down into the “claiming” ranks, where it can be purchased before a race for an established claiming price.

Sometimes the connections of a horse being dropped down in class are trying to “steal” a lower-level race, and sometimes they are successful. Bettors are often leery, however, because they are suspicious about the reasons for the drop and they wonder if perhaps the horse is injured or gone off form and can’t win at the higher level any longer.

That’s the situation that has materialized in the Kansas City mayor’s race with Jason Kander’s announcement yesterday that he is running for mayor next year.

His jumping into the race is the equivalent of a horse that has been running in stakes races — the highest level of racing — suddenly dropping into the claiming ranks and trying to steal a win.

Before he got in, the mayor’s race had a nice field of candidates, including several City Council members and a couple of substantive outsiders. It would have been a very competitive and interesting race without Kander, but he has shattered the picture frame and is redrawing the picture itself.

Already, one person who wouId have been competitive, Councilwoman Jolie Justus, has dropped out of the race and thrown her support behind Kander. Other candidates have probably lain awake the last few nights, mulling their options and their altered prospects.

After The Star reported last week that Kander had told people he intended to run, I wrote that I didn’t think he could win…Well, that was a knee-jerk reaction based on wishful thinking because I had already contributed to two mayoral candidates, and I didn’t like the prospect of the high-flying Kander swooping in and scuttling the existing scenario.

I am very suspicious about Kander’s intentions. He had been reported to be considering running for president…president of the United States. And now, today, he’s running for mayor.

So what gives?

He told The Star’s Steve Vockrodt that during the long period he was mulling his options, he was “thinking about how to impact my community most and whether that was in public office.” Running for mayor, he decided, was an opportunity to serve Kansas City “particularly at a time when I think it’s real important that we have somebody who can continue the progress that’s been built.”

That’s nice, but it doesn’t explain his sudden shift. CNN captured the depth of the head-scratching switcheroo when it published a story that started like this…

“Former Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander has been traveling to early primary states, hiring staff members and getting to know national Democrats all in preparation for a run for …. mayor of Kansas City.”

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I wish I could give you some insight into Kander’s change of heart, but I have no inside information. Last week, a City Council candidate — a man who has since decided not to run — suggested Kander was simply looking for a high-profile position while he bided his time and waited and watched for a bigger opportunity.

That strikes me as the most likely scenario. It doesn’t make sense that he has abandoned his national ambitions. Nothing has happened to dim his prospects. He’s a Democrat, and things are looking promising for the Democrats in the near term.

One thing is clear, however, from Kander’s announcement: He’s been laying the groundwork for this bid for at least several weeks. In the announcement, he quotes a wide array of people who are supporting his mayoral bid.

Besides Jolie Justus, the list includes former Mayor Kay Barnes; Dr. Emanual Cleaver III, senior pastor at St. James United Methodist Church and son of U.S. Rep. Emanuel Cleaver II; former Hispanic Chamber of Commerce president Cici Rojas; former Jackson County legislator Mamie Hughes; Missouri House minority leader Gail McCann Beatty; state Sen. John Rizzo; City Council members Theresa Loar and Kevin McManus; former City Council member Cindy Circo; and former councilman and president of the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Jim Heeter.

That is an impressive list, and it suggests problems for at least four other mayoral candidates — the three African-American candidates and Councilman Scott Taylor.

The African-American council candidates are Quinton Lucas, Jermaine Reed and Alissia Canaday. Lucas is the strongest of the three, but all three might as well fold their tents because the above list tends to indicate Kander has wrapped up the support of Freedom Inc., the city’s potent African-American political organization. Beatty, the House minority leader, ranks very high in Freedom, and Freedom would never go against Emanuel Cleaver II, who, we can assume, is in Kander’s corner.

Moreover, a source who has excellent tentacles into City Hall told me today he believes Kander also has the blessing of Mayor Sly James. That would make sense, otherwise Justus, James’ closest ally on the council, would not have bailed so quickly and endorsed Kander.

Scott Taylor, 6th District at-large councilman, also has to be squirming after seeing his friend and in-district counterpart, Kevin McManus, line up with Kander.

Before today’s cannon shot, Taylor was probably considered the leading contender for mayor. He’s been an excellent councilman and, mainly because he has the support of the development community, has been able to amass a campaign treasury of more than $350,000 — far more than any of the other candidates.

Money is now going to be a  problem for Taylor and probably every other candidate. Kander should have no trouble raising $1 million or even $2 million, and all the other candidates can expect to be scratching for every dollar they can get.

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The candidates I have contributed to are Taylor ($250) and businessman Phil Glynn ($500), whom I’ve known since he was a kid and whose parents, the late Kevin and Judy Glynn, were friends of ours.

I was also considering contributing to Jolie Justus and Councilman Scott Wagner, another announced candidate.

In addition, I like Quinton Lucas very much, and I admire another non-council candidate, lawyer Steve Miller.

Now I don’t know what I’m going to do. The top two finishers in the April primary will go on to the June general election. If I were betting, I’d bet on Kander and Taylor to come out of the primary, with Kander getting a significantly larger percentage of the votes. I expect he will then be the odds-on favorite to win the general election and become Kansas City’s next mayor.

…I don’t like it, though. Something about it rubs me the wrong way. At the track, I’ve always been circumspect about horses dropping in class, and sometimes those horses don’t steal the race. Sometimes they break out of the gate and labor all the way around the track. That’s why they run the race…and why the bettors never know for sure, even when they think a race is a lock, that the favorite is going to win.