JimmyCsays: At the juncture of journalism and daily life in KC

Three long days ago — a day after Jason Kander announced he was running for mayor — I offered my first prediction on which two candidates would make it past the April 2019 primary and into the June general election.

Three long days ago, I said I thought it would be Kander (naturally) and 6th District at-large councilman Scott Taylor, who has by far the biggest campaign war chest — more than $350,000.

I’ve now revised my thinking. This is going to be a race where the top two contenders have ready access to, and a reasonable expectation of getting, big blocks of votes. By that I mean geographic blocks — such as the Northland or the Ward Parkway corridor — and cultural or racial, such as African-American, Catholic and gay.

If all nine candidates who have announced stay in the race, big blocks of votes are going to be hard for any of the candidates to come by. For example, the three African-American candidates — council members Quinton Lucas, Jermaine Reed and Alyssia Canady — can expect to divide the black vote.

Meanwhile, Phil Glynn and Steve Miller have deep Catholic roots, particularly in Visitation parish, and they will split the Catholic vote. (To show you how micro-cosmic this can get, one insider told me he thought the Catholic vote hinged on how members of St. Thomas More Parish in south Kansas City voted.)

On a more macro-cosmic level, eight of the nine candidates live south of the Missouri River. Those eight will be clawing and scratching for the largest piece of the political pie, geographically speaking.

The second biggest geographic area, of course, is the Northland, that is, all of Kansas City north of the Missouri River.

But where the eight from the south will be contesting that part of the vote, there is only one candidate from the Northland. That’s Scott Wagner, a solid council member who has been elected twice citywide and has an unblemished personal record and a reputation for getting things done not only in the Northland but south of the river, as well.

The geography tilts very strongly in Wagner’s direction; he should get the lion’s share of votes cast in the Northland, which would give him a big boost toward getting into the general election.

My conclusion and revised prediction: Kander, who has far and away the best name identity of any of the nine and who will draw from all geographic areas, should win the primary handily, with Wagner finishing second.

(I’m going to attach a cautionary addendum to this prediction. There is nothing to stop one of the big dogs, like Kander or Taylor, from recruiting one or more stalking-horse candidates from the Northland to enter the race with the aim of cutting into Wagner’s advantage. That could pose a problem for Wagner, who would have to move quickly to call it out and debunk any interlopers.

**

I had a long phone conversation with Wagner today, and, it was instrumental in me revising my earlier prediction. I also came away convinced Wagner will be a strong candidate not only because of his substantial geographic base but also because of his strong grasp of, and experience working on, major city issues.

For example, he was a leader in pushing for the successful $800-million general-obligation-bond election that includes $150 million for sidewalk replacement citywide. (The plan calls for more than $7 million a year for 20 years.) Before the G.O. bond proposal came along, city residents had to pick up the tab for replacing their sidewalks. That stuck in just about everybody’s craw, and Wagner began planting the seeds for change several years ago, which resulted in the bond proposal.

Looking toward the primary, Wagner is armed with a sound strategy and a strong message.

His strategy hinges on winning at least 30 percent of the Northland vote and picking up pockets of votes south of the river. The fact that he has been on citywide ballots twice — in 2011 and 2015 — will assure him of some support there. In that sense, he will be pulling votes from the eight other candidates, whose hopes hang unconditionally on south-of-the-river votes.

In fact, Wagner is probably the only candidate who may have benefited from Kander’s entry into the race, at least as far as his chances of surviving the primary. And if Wagner is fortunate enough to make it to the general election, Kander’s advantage in name identity will quickly be reduced, as the searing arc lights of the media will focus on the two people left standing.

Wagner’s message basically boils down to this…and I quote:

“If the mood of the people is they want a candidate who knows what they’re doing and has a vision, well, here I am.”

Running for mayor, he said, is “not about buzz words” and is not a “coronation”; rather it’s about “understanding the issues and having the patience to work through them.”

“If there’s anything I’ve proven,” Wagner continued, “it’s that I’m willing to do the work; I want to do the work.”

That is unquestionably a strong message, but he’s going to need money to get it out. He is off to a slow start on the fund-raising (he says the mid-July report will show him with at least $40,000) and needs to accelerate the pace very quickly.

He acknowledged in our conversation that Kander’s entry added an urgency to the financial dimension, but he believes he will raise enough money to be competitive in the primary. And just as the name-identity situation would even out if Wagner got into the general, so would the disparity in campaign contributions. In any big race, many large contributors tend to cover themselves by giving to both candidates.

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One last thing…I said in my last post that I’ve contributed $500 to Phil Glynn and $250 to Scott Taylor. I’ve now pledged $250 to Wagner. From there, I will assess how the race shapes up, and I’ll be giving more — but probably not to any of the other candidates, and certainly not to Kander.

Like Wagner, I hate the idea of a coronation, which is what Kander is seeking. I want to see a hard-fought primary, with the two candidates who make the strongest cases based on their knowledge of city issues and their willingness to roll up their sleeves going on to battle it out to succeed Sly James.

[I apologize for not being able to publish a photo of Scott Wagner. My computer, with my photo files, is in the shop. My thanks to the Kansas City Public Library for making this post possible.]