• Home
  • About me: Jim Fitzpatrick
  • Contact

JimmyCsays: At the juncture of journalism and daily life in KC

Feeds:
Posts
Comments
« It’s going to be a very long four more years with Frank White as county executive
The latest on David Jungerman: His daughter gets jailed, and he tries to fire his attorney »

Get your bets down here on the mayor’s race…Don’t get shut out!

March 14, 2019 by jimmycsays

What do you make of this mayor’s race?

The Kansas City mayor’s race…the one that doesn’t seem to be firing anyone up.

I think the lack of excitement attending the race is partly the result of what I’ve been writing about recently in regard to the twin fiascos of Frank White and the Jackson County jail:

With The Star a slip of its former self, people simply are not paying as much attention as they did in the past. A big reason they’re not paying attention is there’s not much coverage. Candidate forums involving the 11 candidates in the April 2 primary (the top two will go on to the June 18 general election) are taking place all the time. But The Star has only covered a few of them, and it’s almost impossible with that large a field to write an interesting story.

The reporter’s unappealing task is to try to be fair by including some snippet from every candidate — which has the effect of killing narrative. What you get is more or less a roll-call story.

This will change after the primary, when the field is down to two candidates, but it sure makes for a lousy primary.

…Enough bitching for now, though; let’s get down to the horse race.

At the track — where I spent a lot of time, mostly before I was married — you’ve got to keep a close eye on the tote board and weigh how the odds change as people bet. Since no betting is taking place in the mayor’s race, I can’t give you changing odds, but what I’m going to do is give you what the track calls the “morning line” odds, which are listed in the programs sold to people arriving at the track.

It’s the track handicapper’s best guess as to which horses are most likely to win and what their odds could be at post time.

As a brief primer, even odds — 1 to 1 — mean if you bet $5, you win $5, so your total return on the wager is $10.

If a horse is “odds on,” say 3 to 5, that means you get $3 back on your $5 wager, or a total of $8 when you collect at the pari-mutuel window.

(There’s an old racetrack saying, which I love, about the hazards of betting odds-on horses: If you’ve got the five, you don’t need the three.)

If a horse goes off at 10 to 1, you get $10 back for every dollar you bet, or $11 at the collection window.

The highest odds listed on the tote board are 99 to 1. What that means is you’ll get back at least $99 dollars for every dollar you bet. The actual odds could be 150 or 200 to 1, though, and the bettors don’t know exactly how much a 99-1 horse goes off at unless it wins and the tote board flashes the exact payoff.

So, let’s roll! Here are the JimmyCsays odds on each candidate seeking to be the next mayor.

Jolie Justus

Odds: 1 to 1

Although she has only very few yard signs so far, Justus, a lawyer, has three huge factors working in her favor. First, she has the most elective experience of any candidate, including eight years in the Missouri Senate (2007 to 2015) and the last eight on the City Council. Second, she has the most name identity of any council member (other than Mayor Sly James, of course) by dint of being Aviation Committee chairwoman and being widely credited, along with James, with the push for a new single-terminal airport. (James endorsed her today in a video announcement.)

Third, and perhaps most important, she has a winning personality and an extremely welcoming presence. She puts people at ease and focuses on them when she’s engaged in conversation or listening to them testify before her committee. The first time I met her, in 2007 I believe, the person who introduced us told me she was running for state Senate. After about five minutes of conversation, I pulled out my checkbook and gave her a contribution.

In this primary campaign, Justus has been flooding registered voters’ mailboxes with flyers. They are well done, and she has adopted as her logo the image of the Christopher S. Bond bridge, with its steel cables and triangular-shaped pylon. That was a stroke of genius, implying that her campaign is soaring.

On the down side, some of her 4th District constituents say she has become somewhat unresponsive to them as her city-wide profile has risen. For example, she sided with Quik Trip in its successful push to double the size of its store and gas pumps west of Southwest Trafficway on Westport Road. That left a bad taste in the mouths of a lot of area residents.

 

Quinton Lucas

Odds: 5-1

Lucas is probably going to join Justus in the general-election campaign, primarily on the basis of his looks, smarts and organized support. He’s a lawyer and teaches law classes at the University of Kansas. He’s razor sharp and excellent at spontaneous debate. At a City Council meeting a few weeks ago, he blew away Mayor Pro Tem Scott Wagner, another mayoral candidate, with a blistering fusillade  in a debate over renaming The Paseo after Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

Most important to his chances, Lucas has the backing of the black political organization, Freedom Inc., which is the biggest single, deliverable block of votes in Jackson County. Freedom will produce several thousand votes for Lucas, enough to insure he makes it out of the primary.

Nevertheless, I have been surprised that his campaign has not been more visible and energetic. I’m ambivalent about his yard signs — featuring a large “Q” — and I’m just not hearing much buzz about him.

He also has a shadow hanging over his campaign: A DUI charge he picked up several months ago in Lawrence, when he was sitting at the wheel of his car, motor running, after having had too many drinks at a party. He is fighting the charge, and I have the feeling — can’t give you a good reason why — it’s going to be dropped, at least before the general election.

Steve Miller

Odds: 9-1

Miller, also an attorney, is making a lot of noise and generating some publicity. For a person who has never run for elective office, he is making an impressive run. He knows his way around politics, having served several years on the Missouri Highways and Transportation Commission, including two years as chairman. He also hails from a well-known south Plaza family. His late father Dick Miller was a well-known contractors’ lawyer, and his mother Bernadette Miller is a beloved figure at Visitation Parish, a resident of Bishop Spencer Place and a fixture at the Kansas City Symphony.

Miller has raised a lot of money (up there with Justus and Lucas), thanks mainly to his fellow lawyers, and he recently sent out a catchy email under the headline, “Why has Kansas City been swallowed by potholes.” In an accompanying photo, Miller was wearing a hard hat and reflective work shirt, holding a shovel and standing next to an asphalt-laying machine. Good stuff!

Still, name identity outside the Plaza and Ward Parkway corridor is going to be a problem for Miller. Moreover, he’s a Republican. City elections are nonpartisan, but if he should beat out Lucas for second place in the primary, Jolie Justus will make sure everyone knows Steve Miller is a Republican. Justus is already emphasizing the fact that she’s a Democrat in her flyers.

Scott Taylor

Odds: 15-1

At one time, Taylor led the way in fund-raising, but he has tailed off not only there but in overall visibility. From all indications, he’s been a good, honest councilman the last eight years; he just doesn’t seem to be mayoral timber. As chairman of the council’s Planning, Zoning and Economic Development Committee, Taylor raised a lot of money initially from developers and development attorneys. The problem is he’s seen as never having seen a development project he didn’t like.

Taylor will do very well in his home area, south Kansas City, but I can’t see him doing particularly well elsewhere.

**

The rest of the field — the seven other candidates — I’m lumping in the 99-1 category.

:: Scott Wagner. A councilman for eight years, Wagner hopes to do well in the Northland, from which he hails, but, like former Councilman Jim Glover eight years ago, he just doesn’t seem capable of making the jump to the big time.

:: Phil Glynn. A Ward Parkway resident and member of Visitation Parish, he will pull some votes from Miller but not enough to get anywhere. He should have exhibited patience and run for City Council.

:: Alissia Canaday. She is another council member who hasn’t been able to project a strong image or message.

:: Jermaine Reed…Ditto.

:: Vincent Lee. He calls himself “General Lee” and lives on a battlefield of his own making. I met him a couple of months ago at the Price Chopper in Brookside. He introduced himself as “General Lee” and bent my ear for 20 minutes but never once mentioned he was running for mayor.

:: Henry Klein. He ran eight years ago without making any impression on voters and is, for some reason, back again. He has several goofy yard signs, including one that says, “Fighting for Lost Causes.” It should have said, “Fighting a Lost Cause.”

:: Clay Chastain. I take it back on the 99 to 1. The odds on Chastain becoming mayor are 10,000 to 1. What a turd.

Share this:

  • Twitter
  • Facebook

Like this:

Like Loading...

Related

Posted in Uncategorized | 7 Comments

7 Responses

  1. on March 14, 2019 at 9:53 am Vern Barnet

    I expected Sly’s support for Justus. He’s been grooming her for months or more. My top three reasons why I oppose Justus:

    (1) As chair of the airport committee, she and Sly tried to pull “secret, no-bid contract” (the Star’s phrase) with Burns & McDonnell. This is not the transparent leadership we need.

    (2) At Council, she spoke at length and voted against Katheryn Shields’s reasonable idea to have the neighborhoods and Opus (money goes to Mnpls) negotiate on the development at Broadway and Westport, after eight neighborhood associations and historic preservation folks came out against the destruction of social capital and the historic character of Westport (none of us opposing well-planned increased density). Yet she is the in-district Council member for Westport. You mention the Quik Trip expansion; another example of favoring developers over neighborhoods.

    (3) I campaigned for Justus four years ago. During the campaign and after she took office, I wrote polite letters with a simple request to look at something I had written, not about city policy, but rather on her side as an LGBT advocate, that were never answered, even after I spoke with her about them in person.

    In terms of procedure, policy, and constituent service, in my view, she fails. She excels in appearance.


    • on March 14, 2019 at 2:17 pm jimmycsays

      I know, I know…I just think she’d be great for Kansas City, just as Sly has been. She’s probably going to hold elective office for many years to come.


  2. on March 14, 2019 at 11:20 am altevogt

    ” it’s almost impossible with that large a field to write an interesting story.” Bullshit, you just did what you said The Star couldn’t do.

    The problem at The Star is its incompetent leadership. We now have a teeny-bopping intern blowing bubblegum about the Kansas legislature along with another part-timer who’s covering it from Jeff City with the only full-timer doing double duty for The Eagle and The Star.

    Berg’s carpetbagging editorial staff is doing these candidates and if the writing sucks you just proved that the problem isn’t the number of candidates.

    The only people down there who are writing anything worthwhile are the ones who turned down the buyouts and, given the Tweets the editors have been making on Twitter to find new reporters, I think we can all wait for their arrivals.

    The problem is bloodsucking incompetence at The Star’s helm, not the task at hand. Hell, they should give you $100 and publish this instead of their own crap. At least you’ve never got them sued.


    • on March 14, 2019 at 2:18 pm jimmycsays

      The problem is McClatchy.


  3. on March 14, 2019 at 5:36 pm Mark Peavy

    If coverage of the mayor’s race is perceived as lacking, then coverage of the council and school board races should be declared non-existent. I have no idea how I am going to make an informed decision on the council and school board races.


  4. on March 14, 2019 at 11:05 pm Kelvin Perry

    Jolie has been on the City Council for four years, not eight.


    • on March 15, 2019 at 9:07 am jimmycsays

      Thanks for the correction, Kelvin…It just seems like she’s been on forever.



Comments are closed.

  • Pages

    • About me: Jim Fitzpatrick
    • Contact
  • Archives

    • February 2023
    • January 2023
    • December 2022
    • November 2022
    • October 2022
    • September 2022
    • August 2022
    • July 2022
    • June 2022
    • May 2022
    • April 2022
    • March 2022
    • February 2022
    • January 2022
    • December 2021
    • November 2021
    • October 2021
    • September 2021
    • August 2021
    • July 2021
    • June 2021
    • May 2021
    • April 2021
    • March 2021
    • February 2021
    • January 2021
    • December 2020
    • November 2020
    • October 2020
    • September 2020
    • August 2020
    • July 2020
    • June 2020
    • May 2020
    • April 2020
    • March 2020
    • February 2020
    • January 2020
    • December 2019
    • November 2019
    • October 2019
    • September 2019
    • August 2019
    • July 2019
    • June 2019
    • May 2019
    • April 2019
    • March 2019
    • February 2019
    • January 2019
    • December 2018
    • November 2018
    • October 2018
    • September 2018
    • August 2018
    • July 2018
    • June 2018
    • May 2018
    • April 2018
    • March 2018
    • February 2018
    • January 2018
    • December 2017
    • November 2017
    • October 2017
    • September 2017
    • August 2017
    • July 2017
    • June 2017
    • May 2017
    • April 2017
    • March 2017
    • February 2017
    • January 2017
    • December 2016
    • November 2016
    • October 2016
    • September 2016
    • August 2016
    • July 2016
    • June 2016
    • May 2016
    • April 2016
    • March 2016
    • February 2016
    • January 2016
    • December 2015
    • November 2015
    • October 2015
    • September 2015
    • August 2015
    • July 2015
    • June 2015
    • May 2015
    • April 2015
    • March 2015
    • February 2015
    • January 2015
    • December 2014
    • November 2014
    • October 2014
    • September 2014
    • August 2014
    • July 2014
    • June 2014
    • May 2014
    • April 2014
    • March 2014
    • February 2014
    • January 2014
    • December 2013
    • November 2013
    • October 2013
    • September 2013
    • August 2013
    • July 2013
    • June 2013
    • May 2013
    • April 2013
    • March 2013
    • February 2013
    • January 2013
    • December 2012
    • November 2012
    • May 2012
    • April 2012
    • March 2012
    • February 2012
    • January 2012
    • December 2011
    • November 2011
    • October 2011
    • September 2011
    • August 2011
    • July 2011
    • June 2011
    • May 2011
    • April 2011
    • March 2011
    • February 2011
    • January 2011
    • December 2010
    • November 2010
    • October 2010
    • September 2010
    • August 2010
    • July 2010
    • June 2010
    • May 2010
    • April 2010
    • March 2010
  • Enter your email address to subscribe to this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email.

    Join 563 other subscribers

Blog at WordPress.com.

WPThemes.


  • Follow Following
    • JimmyCsays: At the juncture of journalism and daily life in KC
    • Join 563 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • JimmyCsays: At the juncture of journalism and daily life in KC
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Copy shortlink
    • Report this content
    • View post in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...
 

    %d bloggers like this: