Just how much political clout and muscle will Donald Trump have during the years after he leaves, or is escorted from, the White House on Jan. 20?
That’s a question a lot of people are asking, and some Democrats fear that because of his extensive, determined base and his outsize influence on other Republicans, he will be able to continue clawing at the fabric of democracy, or at least have a disproportionate impact on the national political scene.
Personally, I’m not worried about Trump looming large in American politics as we head into the Biden administration.
Yes, he’ll still be spewing those annoying, all-caps Twitter posts, and he’ll get inordinate attention — at least for a while — from Fox News. But time takes a hell of a toll on almost everyone’s aspirations to remain vigorous and ambitious, and I expect it to be no different with Trump.
Right now, he’s boiling mad and flapping like a big fish solidly hooked, but he’s facing three factors that will likely take most of the punch out of him: The pain of defeat, the passage of time and the dimming of his media persona.
Regarding the sting of defeat, Trump is obviously still in deep denial and hasn’t come to grips with the fact that he actually lost. Ultimately, he will awaken to his fate, though. There’s no avoiding it.
After he gets to Mar-A-Lago, he’s going to find life a lot different and a lot less exciting. His phone’s not going to ring as much, and when he makes calls, it will be mostly to people willing to indulge him, not heads of state. And I suspect he won’t be getting as many return calls from Republican senators and representatives.
I think he’s going to be pretty lonely, too. His children (and Jared) probably won’t remain at his beck and call. And, talk about cold fish…Melania? How much solace and comfort do you think she’s going to offer? I don’t think there will be a lot of, “Don’t worry, honey, everything’s going to work out.”
Then there’s the simple passage of time.
What Trump is facing is involuntary retirement. But it’s still retirement. Retirement at 74…not 54, not 64. Yes, President-Elect Joe Biden is 78, but when he left the White House in 2016 after eight years as Vice President, he did not leave defeated. Besides, he still looks pretty fit at 78.
Trump, on the other hand, is a model of un-fit. It takes a lot of tuning and toning to keep the color in his cheeks, and he has to take a wide golf swing to get around that big gut. I think we’ll see significant changes in him physically and psychologically in the years ahead. Who knows? He might be dead or incapacitated in four years.
But whatever time does to him, the biggest shock he’s facing — and probably doesn’t realize it — is the dimming of his persona.
Power, money and attention are what he lives for, and while he still might be able to cash in on his presidency monetarily, the power and attention he enjoyed will slide away. Once the votes have been counted (and in this case, sadly, that means the electoral votes), the arc lights will go out; the bully pulpit will be gone; and the headlines will disappear.
The intense coverage he got from right, left and center publications and networks will recede. Fox News will probably come to realize that Trump-in-exile is not its highest and best use of air time. And the Big Three national papers — The New York Times, The Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal — will all focus their attention on Biden’s effort to set the nation on a new course.
Don’t fret, readers. Don’t stew. That all-consuming, noxious, Trump presence is about to recede. That discordant voice that echoed throughout the land will become a diminishing echo in his personal cave of vexation.
Great calming perspective. Thanks. His $$/legal challenges will be be factors in his mental decline.
I wonder if his patsies will ever tire of his unending begging for money?
The mistake here is confusing Trump with the anger he was able to articulate. For example, when he took office polls indicated that the media has something like a 9% positive rating. Trump and his various press secretaries verbalized that anger with denunciations of fake news and enemies of the people and many in the media foolishly gave them plenty of ammunition. Sending Trump back to Mar-A-Lago isn’t going to make the press anymore popular.
Conservatives who equate BLM the organization with blm the issue make the same mistake. There is an anger in the black community that is not going away simply because Biden moves into the White House. Indeed Davies theory of revolutions predicts that it may in fact grow.
Trump can go back to Mar-A-Lago and BLM can be denounced for its Marxist leadership, but until the anger they articulate is addressed, nothing will change.
The one positive thing that may occur is that JimmyCSays may go back to addressing local issues ;-)
Please assure us that the media will call lies “lies” when the next charlatan, smarter than Trump and willing to destroy democracy, starts to gain significant followers, instead of the false equivalency that characterized much early reporting on Trump. And in general, how will Americans learn to protect themselves from the fire hose of lies?
I can’t answer the last question, Vern; no one can. As for calling out lies, I think the responsible news organizations have learned from dealing with Trump how to parry would-be autocrats. That doesn’t guarantee another such person won’t be going into the White House, but I expect the alarm bells to be sounding much sooner.
In addition, back in 2016, I think there was little understanding of just how great a percentage of voters could be hornswoggled…63 million then, 74 million this year? Almost unbelievable, but now we know…
You’re forgetting there is still the Trump presidential library to consider …… bad smells always linger
How about Idaho or North Dakota? Someplace where the “true believers” can gather and not bother too many others.
Jim I agree with you his impact is going to diminish after Inauguration Day. He’ll keep his core base fired up for four years but I keep “thinking “ Republicans will abandon him. I am embarrassed that so many representatives and senators are supporting his frivolous lawsuits. Believe it or not, I didn’t vote for him in 2016. I wrote in someone and voted for the Libertarian this year. Trump was an interloper who hijacked the Republican Party. I hope it can be resurrected, or changed to be a larger tent.
After January 20, Trump will definitely be what he can not stand – a loser. A lot of his attraction is because he was seen as a winner and there are a lot of people who want to associate with a winner. Now that he will be a loser, there will be group that will no longer want to be identified with him.
And there are plenty of legal and financial issues facing Trump. He will try to continue to fund raise to pay for his lifestyle, his business debt, and his legal fees. He will be in court trying to stay out of jail for the rest of his life. If he is convicted and jailed Trump will be “Brownbacked”. His supporters will just try to erase they ever supported him.
The racism, white supremacy, etc. that Trump has encouraged and allowed to flourish will be the big problem. Problem 2 is that a large number of Republicans are willing to overthrow democracy if that allows them to stay in power. These two problems will be the big issues for the next 10 years.
Good analysis, Bill. I agree there will be a steady erosion of support. There will be a lot of pledges of loyalty at first, but slippage will inevitably set in.
There has been no acknowledgement that the 74 MILLION who voted for Trump were not all horns-waggled. There is an underlying anger and a feeling of betrayal that Trump tapped into. These folks have been lied too for decades from the all the politicians who promise to rid the world of abortion to nearly establishing christianity as a state religion. The promise of outlandish gun rights, limits on government across the board. Time after time when compromise occurs these folks feel lied too and with out even acknowledging the issues and dealing with them the next oligarch wannabe will have a much more ripe and large audience to rally around.
Fitz, I hope you are right. But under Trump, the Republican Party became stronger than it has ever been in its long history. Let’s face it: the number of angry, small-minded people in this country far outnumber those who actually read and reason. And they are more than willing to embrace an autocratic leader if he or she talks tough and makes life difficult for certain segments of the population. Trump is their hero and as long as these folks are around, not to mention all the facts-be-damned right wing news outlets and web sites, Trump will too. I don’t think he’s going away. And frankly, I don’t think his most armed and ardent supporters are going to let anyone move into the White House on January 20. I see the next six weeks being some of the ugliest days in our country’s history.
Jim, thanks so much for keeping us ex’ers informed on the comings and goings. As for today’s discussion, it’s so fascinating that I have to weigh in. As much as I respect much of what has been written here, I must back Mike Rice in the outlook here that Trump isn’t going away and Trumpism is a new normal. Consider:
— Yes, Biden won the election, but Republicans still improved their seats in the House and in many places across the country EVEN THOUGH the top of their ticket featured one of the most corrupt presidents in the nation’s history who mishandled the greatest public health crisis in a century. The Democratic Party is in deep trouble.
— Yes, Trump will face investigations and probably indictments once he’s out of office, but how will he and his supporters view them: as fake news, as a witch hunt, so they will totally ignore the seriousness of Trump’s doings. Trump’s history is full of lawsuits, and he has an army of attorneys to fight for him.
— Trump has already indicated privately that he will run in 2024, so he will make sure that the media spotlight remains on him, via Tweets and other outlandish accusations that he will surely make about the Biden administration. That will help him raise money, too. Trump will remain front and center, and you’re already seeing other top Republicans continue to kowtow to him. Him losing the election was the perfect opportunity for Senators with eyes on 2024 to distance themselves from Trump — but they didn’t.
Bottom line, America won’t truly rid itself of Trump until some new charismatic leader emerges on the national stage and relegates Trump to the background. It’s not Biden; he’s a placeholder. But America desperately needs a new charismatic leader, either Republican or Democrat. If 2024 is a repeat of Biden vs. Trump, heaven help us.
Just some thoughts. Thanks again Jim.
Great to hear from you, Jeff…Welcome to the Comments Dept.
You’re reasoning is sound. Maybe my reasoning is tinged with wishful thinking, but I just don’t believe a Trump-out-of-office can compete with the toll of time. It will be interesting (?) to see what develops.
Trump himself is not the problem. Rather, he is the symbol of and the spokesperson for tens of millions of Americans who are very unhappy with the United States government. There are more issues of citizen discontent than can be listed in this short space. It is not likely any of the 74-(M) people who voted for him are going to believe many of these issues will be resolved by President-elect Biden’s Administration. As long as Trump’s health holds up and he is alive, he will remain the only advocate these millions of citizens have on the national stage. There is no one else who can do it.